The late offer of an anonymous employer in late information on profits to the British statistics agency is likely to distort the main official measure of the wage growth country, increasing doubts about data that guide monetary policy.
The Office for National Statistics declared in a low page note little zero to its publication of winning figures last week that “as an exception”, it worked on revisions which could go back further in time than usual, “to allow late and updated yields that we have received from a company to be included, in the context of improving the quality of these estimates”.
The inclusion of the mystery employer could have “a small impact in terms of the whole economy,” said the ONS, as the agency promised a complete explanation when it is published.
The profits issued by the ONS are based on a survey of companies and are closely monitored by the Bank of England when they make interest rate decisions.
The ONS also declared last week that he examined how he adjusted profits to take into account seasonal fluctuations – an exercise that he led to periodically – and that “if necessary”, he would implement revisions of all his historic series of wage data at the beginning of 2025 “.
Revisions are potentially important because the force of wage growth in the United Kingdom on almost all measures has been Puzzle For analysts, at a time when the economy and the job market stagnate.
THE Latest ons figures Affirmed that the average weekly profits – excluding bonuses – were 5.9% higher in the three months until January than a year earlier.
The growth of salaries in the private sector was even higher, at 6.1%, after apparently accelerated at the end of 2024, even though employers reduced hiring after the corporate tax increases described in the October Rachel Reeves Chancellor budget.
The BOE, which has been more and more expressed in its concerns about the quality of the UK official statistics, drew attention last week to differences between the profits of the ONS and other data that suggests the growth of wages, although always strong, is so damaged.
The BOE has also focused attention on the recent volatility of GDP data, continuous problems with official labor market data and “the importance of the development of high -quality and reliable official data policies throughout the range of economic and labor market”.
The profits were not affected by a drop in response rates by households to the ONS workforce survey which underlies the data on jobs.
But Andrew Goodwin, chief economist of the United Kingdom to the Oxford Economics consultation, said that in addition to well-published problems with jobs, population, trade and prices, other problems with ONS statistics emerged “which have not yet been officially recognized”.
These included “extreme” oscillations in retail sales figures in the turn of the year, and an emerging scheme of GDP growth which is exceeded in the middle of the calendar year, which suggested problems with seasonal adjustments, he said.
Goodwin said the profits are “undoubtedly the most important series for the Bank of England” because they offer an inflationary pressures indicator in the economy.
The ons, who first pointed out the potential revisions in February, said that it could not yet be more precise on the moment when they are implemented or identify the employer concerned.
However, the agency noted that its survey -based data and its separate figures based on tax files have shown similar “relatively strong” wage growth.
The ONS said that they have regularly examined its approach to seasonal adjustments as new data was available, and that the punctual impacts such as the cocovio pandemic “must be carefully considered and taken into account in a detailed analysis”.
