The main problems with employment data in the United Kingdom were brought to the attention of the head of the Statistics Agency after the sample size for an estimate “collapsed to only five people”, according to the emails obtained by the Financial Times.
Richard Heys, deputy chief economist at the National Statistics OfficeWarned in an email in October 2023 that there was “little merit” in maintaining the agency's workforce (LFS), adding that a point of data for an industry had “moved (d) by 30%” due to the collapse of the sample size.
THE e-mails To the upper figures of the ONS, released in response to a request for freedom of information by the FT, was before a briefing to the head of the Sir Ian Diamond ONS in October 2023, shortly before the agency Publication from key labor market statistics With a single day notice.
Diamond said The selected committee of the Treasury of the House of Commons last month that the briefing of October 17, 2023 was the first time that he became aware of the fragility and the lack of reliability of the survey, which underlies critical British economic statistics such as the unemployment rate.
In the 2023 email, Heys said that a new investigation under development by ONS – the “transformed” active population (TLFS) – presented difficult data “, but has always advised that existing LFs be discovered.
“There is little merit and falling into the maintenance of the LFS and the key point is not when the TLFS is perfect, it is when it is clearly higher than the LFS,” wrote Heys on October 12, 2023.
“As a person who had just seen one of their statistics move by 30% because the size of the sample for industry in the LFS survey has collapsed at only five individuals … I think we are probably already there from my point of view,” he added.
The email did not specify which data was affected, but indicated that Heys spoke of one of the detailed statistics of the industry which is published alongside unemployment numbers.
Heys also described how ONS officials should present the problems in Diamond. “We have to be careful to seem positive but not in Panglossian. Data quality and stakeholder feedback are non-trivial problems with whom SID (SIR Ian Diamond) strike and it is important that we are not saming that we underestimate them,” he said in email.
Correspondence gives an overview of decision -making to the besieged agency, which was criticized by politicians for its “Doubtful statistics” who left decision -makers with “Main dead angles”.
The LFS of the ONS began to weaken considerably during the COVVI-19 pandemic when the ons were forced to pass from interviews in person to telephone interviews. At the end of 2023, the survey response rate had dropped below 15%.
Despite the intention to go to an online TLFS before March 2024, “Systematic” underinvestment and “recurrent over-optimism” The project considerably delayed, according to an internal journal ONS.
Employment estimates are always based on the original erroneous survey and the transition to the TLFS is not expected only at least 2026.
The foddiness of presentation of the ONS of October 2023 highlighted “nervousness” among the main stakeholders on the transition to TLF too early, citing concerns about the quality of the data.
The ons did not comment.
