If we have trouble sleeping for a few weeks, it's probably because of This main story From March 25:
The late offer of an anonymous employer in late information on profits to the British statistics agency is likely to distort the main official measure of the wage growth country, increasing doubts about data that guide monetary policy.
The intermediary period experienced an increase in the instability of the global market, without a doubt due to the uncertainty of the traders as to which the mystery activity overwhelming the average weekly income of the United Kingdom could be and what impact the revisions could have:
Despite these Rots, we have not seen many speculation on the sale side. Bruna Skarica by Morgan Stanley was one of the few to put his head above the parapet, writing last week:
It is difficult to think of a single company that could move the figures significantly, with the exception of the NHS in England. If the revisions relate to the NHS, they would appear in public sector data and the whole economy.
Well, we have a new data charge in the labor marketAnd something of an answer.
And no, it's not the NHS England. Instead, he is a large retailer. Or a exceptionally Large repair company.
The ONS, of course, is tight on the identity of this “only company”, and refused to offer more details to FT Alphaville. Can data offer an index?
What the ons:
As indicated in the previous bulletin, we were working, as an exception, when opening revisions further in time than usual to allow late and updated feedback that we have received from a company to include. We have now concluded this work and, as part of this press release, we revised the estimates until October 2020 to improve the quality of our estimates.…
In terms of the entire economy, revisions are generally low and in the range we see during seasonal adjustment exams. As expected, as estimates are broken down from the entire level of the economy, revisions become greater. The most important revisions are observed in the wholesale, retail, hotels and restaurants and the retail and repairs industry, which justified the exceptional revisions to be implemented.
They add, channeling Morrissey::
Certain periods see more significant revisions than others.
Despite this, the ons seem a little shy to show how sharp these revisions are. THE Section of today's AWE version covering adjustments Understands a vision of the whole economy …
… A view of the private sector …
… And a wholesale view, with retail, hotels and restaurants…
… But just stops unless we give us a painting for the most granular (and therefore juicy) level, providing only words:
The retail and repairs industry has shown the most important revisions. The most important revisions concerned the periods between the three months and November 2021 to May 2022, when the revisions were between 1.5 and 3.4 percentage points and more recently from three months to July 2024 to September 2024, while they were around 2.1 percentage points.
To get our graphic, we had to go to X04: Additional analysis of average weekly profitsA spreadsheet published in parallel with today's release. This calculation sheet has specific monthly fear figures for before and after the revisions. Here is what they look like (nb unlike the other graphics above, these figures are not adjusted in a seasonal way):
It is a fairly big jump once we went down to this level. May 2024 is particularly notable – the fear of retail and repair of this week was 28.7% higher than the ons thought previously.
The gap, as you can guess of the form of the line above the pink line above, seems to be largely in a punctual bonus: ONS revisions put the retail and repairs are more than £ 19 higher than the month, and attribute £ 17 of this leap to bonuses:
So what do we know?
– a business
– Retail or repair
– salary above average (since it has drawn the whole series)
– bigLike Shift-the-Whole Series Big
– Poured a substantial bonus in May 2024
And since we are a blog, we can speculate lazily.
Last April, the British supermarket, Tesco – one of the largest employers in the United Kingdom private sector – announced a bonus system of 70 million pounds sterling for its 220,000 employees.
According to A message on the Tesco SubdredditThis has taken the form of a “punctual payment of 1.5% of the eligible profits for hourly staff in British stores, CFCs, UFCs, CECs and distribution”, which landed in Tesco employees could pay a package.
So if we had To bet, it would be Tesco. If you have a better supposition, let us know in the usual way.
